Wednesday, 18 September 2013

Ericsson's prediction about 50B M2M devices are flawed

A few years ago there was a prediction the world would run out of IP addresses.  This did not happen in the predicted catastrophic way it was thought would happen.  The reason was a local network was created using a technology called NAT which took the pressure off IP addresses. 

Ericsson have predicted that by 2020 there will be 50Billion M2M (machne to machine) devices and that this will cause a strain on the networks and I am sure they're hoping that companies will buy more Ericsson netwrk equipment as a result.

I think that Ericsson predictions about large numbers (50B or even more) of M2M devices are correct but the prediction that the networks will not be able to take the strain are similar to the IP address issue.  Its now becoming clear that local networks and intelligent devices will take the strain.  BLE (Bluetooth Low Energy) will be the equivalent of the NAT for networks, these BLE networks will integrate with intelligent devices to interpret and integrate with the full Internet.  We're now already seeing the initial versions of these devices appearing in the form of iBeacons but this is a very new and rapidly expanding area.  These beacons will grow into a whole new technology and Ericsson needs to consider re-writing its' predictions.

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